‘If the Irish climate went up for sale, there would be a stampede for it.’ - Bill Wann, former director of Met Eireann

By John Whelan

Where are the weather girls when you need them?  A cursory call to Met Eireann this week and no sign of Evelyn Cusack, Joanna Donnelly, Joan Blackburn, Jean Byrne, Karina Buckley, Emily Gleeson or Deirdre Lowe.

Mike, the man at the Met, said that there were no meteorologists at their Glasnevin HQ at the moment.

“There’s no forecasters here right now, they do shift work, they’re on a roster and if they’re off, they’re off. Hold on for a sec until I check again.” (While on hold, horrible, horrible harp music.) “No, there’s none of them here at the moment unfortunately. There’s 16 or 17 of them but they can be on days off. There’s one of them in RTE all the time, try there.” Thanks Mike.

It’s bucketing down outside, August 20^th, 2009. A third washout  summer of flooding, ruined barbecues and soakings. It’s official, July was the wettest on record for 50 years! It rained all bar two days during the month, 42mm on July 2^nd alone, following severe thunderstorms, the highest ever rainfall on record for Dublin in July. Soft day me arse. Old Moore’s Almanac is right, Ireland is going to end up under water. It seems the weather forecasters have abandoned the country along with Brian Cowen and the sun.

The comedian Billy Connolly has a sarcastic sketch based on famine and people trying to live in the Sahara. His advice: “Cop on, it’s a desert, nothing grows there, you cannot survive. Stop dropping food parcels, it’s a waste of time. Parachute in a transit van and get them all to hell out of there or they’re going to die. It’s a desert.”

Lots of rainbows but no end in sight to rain

Likewise, it’s Ireland, it rains a lot especially in the summer, that’s why we have forty shades of green, so get over it. The people at Met Eireann point out other advantages too from our north Atlantic, damp yet moderate and  mild climate. They observe that we seldom have any extremes so therefore no hurricanes, droughts, monsoons or heat waves.  All in all, the arthritis aside, it’s a pleasant place to live.

Forecasting the weather is a serious business, even though in countries like Italy they sometimes do it topless.  Gerry Murphy is holding the fort for the Met out at Montrose and he’s not amused with the suggestion that it’s their job to bring a little sunshine into our lives.

“Personally, I never worry about being a harbinger of bad news. We have a privileged and responsible position and the knowledge to accurately report the weather for leisure or work purposes and to help people to be prepared.  You can only forecast with any degree of accuracy for five days ahead, but the statistics show that 40% of the rain in Ireland falls from April to October, we don’t get extremes as we have a very temperate, humid, moderate climate. A very good summer in Ireland is the exception, not the norm. The last two have been worse than average and the last exceptional summer that people recall was 1995. But it was also horrendous in 1985 and’86 as far as rainfall, but generally it’s variable. The average minimum temperature has increased, that’s noticeable, we have less frost and ice, the winters are getting milder overall.” Oh my God, like I said they take the whole weather thing so serious at Met Eireann.

One man who knows that is T.P. O’ Conchuir from Ballydavid near Dingle. He fell foul of Evelyn Cusack recently on RTE radio when she chastised  him over his weather forecasting piseogs and  scolded him in no uncertain terms, despite the best efforts of Rachel English to referee, that meteorology is based on science not superstition.

“That didn’t bother me at all, they’re well paid for what they do and very often get it wrong. Traditional forecasting is based on the antics of birds, the blossoms and nature and is usually fairly accurate. For instance if you see the heron up in the small streams and the bogs then watch out as the rest of the month is fecked and myself and my wife spotted that while out walking the first week in August.  The man to listen to is that fella from New Zealand, Ken Ring. He was right last year and again this year so far. He knows a lot more than he is given credit for and he has predicted a good September and I’m looking forward to it,” says T.P. who seems to take the good and bad weather in his stride.

As for the Kiwi, Ken Ring he does indeed give long range forecasts and has a legion of fans who subscribe to his techniques based on maths and the moon.

“I did say way back in February that summer in Ireland for 2009 was never

going to be all that hot.  July, I said would be a mainly wet month

August was going to be another wet month for all, with only the south

possibly getting good sun sometimes during the second half of the month from

about now onwards until about the 30th. And I said September would bring the

best weather of the season for everyone of which the second and third weeks

should be summery, after which there should be a fairly rapid descent into

autumn temperatures. Now, six months later I stand by these predictions for

September because I only use a mathematical algorithm and so there is never

any need to update something once I have said it. It is virtually set in

concrete. Metservice personnel use satellites to take snapshots of the tops

of clouds happening now, which they then react to, therefore they have a

need to change their minds and ideas every five minutes. They are good at

what they do but they are mostly weather reporters. I guess the difference is that they are looking for stories and not cycles.” Steady on Ken.

What exactly are the people over at Met Eireann giving for the rest of the August?

Today, (Sunday) will be a day of blustery showers, Monday will be unsettled. Wet and windy all next week with quite a lot of rainfall expected for the rest of  the month.

Bring back Gerald Fleming, at least he winks when he says it’s going to rain some more, as if he’s only kidding.

Ken Ring’s website is: www.predictweather.com